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COVID Normalcy Could Happen in the US by 2022

COVID Normalcy Could Happen in the US by 2022

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House’s chief medical advisor, recently shared that COVID normalcy can happen in the US by 2022. However, certain things need to happen before that becomes a possibility.

What exactly does COVID normalcy mean, and how can it be achieved? In addition, is COVID normalcy within reach for us Filipinos anytime soon?

COVID Normalcy Can Happen by 2022 — Dr. Anthony Fauci

In a previous statement made by Dr. Fauci last April, he shared that the United States could return to “normal” around this time of the year. However, because of the Delta variant, this was not achieved.

With the updated projections, he believes that by spring of next year (March to May in the Philippines), things would go back to normal. However, this projection hinges on one thing, which is if the majority of people get fully vaccinated1.

At the moment, 52% of people in the United States are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Compared to the Philippines, where only 14.5% have been fully vaccinated, this is a significant amount. But despite this number, it’s still not enough to ensure that outbreaks can be prevented. The only way to be sure that cases go down is if a large majority of the population gets vaccinated.

What Is COVID Normalcy?

Online newspaper The Economist created what’s known as the COVID normalcy index. This index measures people’s activities during the pandemic, and compares it to their activities before the pandemic. This way, we can have an idea of both how much of an impact COVID-19 has, as well as if things are getting back to normal2.

According to The Economist, most Western countries are at around 66% normalcy. This means that they are about halfway back to normal though it is important to note that the index can also go down. For example, if authorities enforce tighter restrictions, the COVID normalcy index tends to go down. In contrast, if authorities ease restrictions, the index starts to go up.

Having a high COVID normalcy index doesn’t necessarily mean that things are perfectly normal. The virus is still out there, and it is still important for people to practice safety precautions against COVID-19, even if they are already vaccinated.

What About COVID Normalcy in the Philippines?

Based on the COVID normalcy index, the Philippines is at about 50% normalcy. But because of tighter government restrictions due to increasing cases, the trend seems to be going down.

When compared to countries such as the United States, the Philippines has limited capacity to control the outbreak. One of the biggest reasons why is because we do not have enough vaccines to vaccinate our entire population. This means that only a few people are fully vaccinated, and thus protected from infection.

The Factors

Aside from the lack of vaccines, another problem is vaccine hesitancy and vaccine refusal3. Some people believe that the vaccine might make them sick, while others don’t believe in vaccines outright. This can cause problems if people don’t show up for their vaccination schedule, as some vaccines can be wasted.

Another factor is that some people aren’t following the right safety protocols for COVID-19. This can be especially dangerous as it only takes one infected person to start an outbreak. Not wearing a mask, or going out even if you feel sick are very risky behaviors that can cause other people to get sick4.

Lack of testing and contact tracing are also big problems that makes controlling the infection difficult. If you add all of these things up, it can take a while before COVID normalcy in the country goes up.

So it is important for us to do whatever we can to stop the spread of disease. This means that we need to get the vaccine as soon as we are able, and we need to constantly practice COVID-19 safety protocols. If each and every one of us does these things, it can have a big impact in terms of slowing down the spread of infection.

Learn more about Coronavirus here.

Hello Health Group does not provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.



1 Dr. Fauci: How the U.S. can reach Covid ‘normality’ by spring 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/08/25/dr-fauci-how-the-us-can-reach-covid-normality-by-spring-2022.html, Accessed August 27, 2021

2 Our normalcy index shows life is halfway back to pre-covid norms | The Economist, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/07/03/our-normalcy-index-shows-life-is-halfway-back-to-pre-covid-norms, Accessed August 27, 2021

3 Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know – Mayo Clinic, https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808, Accessed August 27, 2021

4 From the “new normal” to a “new future”: A sustainable response to COVID-19, https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/commentaries/detail-hq/from-the-new-normal-to-a-new-future-a-sustainable-response-to-covid-19, Accessed August 27, 2021

5 FAQs: Vaccines | Department of Health website, https://doh.gov.ph/faqs/vaccines, Accessed August 27, 2021

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Written by Jan Alwyn Batara Updated May 04
Medically reviewed by Michael Henry Wanat